Ichimoku: DAX in the spotlight

Here’s something different than forex pairs, been thinking about dabbling in indexes for a while and now it’s time (after checking the deposit minimums)…

Image source: Deutsche Börse AG

Playing on a faster timeframe (M15) was supposed to be enough considering how much more a single point is worth than on a forex pair but after two days I’m not so sure anymore.

dax (fde30) sell 18-02-2019

Price quite flat after sharp upward move, ADX also above the threshold, a bearish candle closing around the Kijun – sell and counting on a quick excursion towards the Kumo.

My initial TP was (afterthought) very well planned but of course I had to move it so there was no gain to be made – finally the position was closed manually. A good start for the upcoming week indeed.

dax (FDE30) sell 19-02-2019

Hyped with earlier operation (sweet naivete) my thought process: price flatlined again, entered Kumo, pierced Kijun, maybe it’ll go all the way to the bottom of the cloud? Opened a sell before 9AM.

Closed with a loss 3 candles later (45 minutes) – didn’t bother to take umpteen points despite the chance: greed took over.

dax (fde30) buy 19-02-2019

Well then I’ll just reverse this into a buy – it seems that I just got whipped by a sentiment testing this morning and that’s all, right?

An hour later I was totally fed up with my decisions that Tuesday – not much to write because the root cause was obvious: turned my thinking off.

After two bad plays I’ve decided to rethink my trading once more. I can see a recurring theme: trying lower (faster) TFs despite treating higher (slower) ones as more fitting my character and risk tolerance. I stubbornly use lower TFs that require way more flexibility and speed in processing information than what is at my disposal – having other responsibilities (eg. day job) doesn’t help as well.

That’s why I’ve taken a break until end of this week and I’ll only play the (brace for it) D1 charts. Due to this fact I’m dialing my Ichimoku back to the classic 9-26-52 value-set. I’ll probably stick to DAX and forex pairs especially since I can handle my current margins better with those and D1 covers way more ground than faster TFs.

Such move should enable me to focus on better investment vehicle selection and picking the moment of entering a trade – there’s ample time to think it through. Properly identified trend will have more power to boot. This should also lower the chance of getting whipsawed on sentiment testing since one would need to use substantially more funds to move a daily the same way as H1 or M15 gets swayed sometimes.

Let’s see how it turns out, I’ll be probably posting less than once a week depending on the situation.